Saturday, November 9, 2019

Fannock's First Call: Tuesday Event


By: Ryan Fannock

 11:50PM 11/09/2019


I've been watching the models like a hawk lately over this Tuesday event. Several days ago it caught my eye on the Canadian model. It showed FEET of snow in our area and that idea has been thrown out the window. A lot of people have asked me, "What's the most accurate model?" I can never really give a good answer because the models all have their flaws. However, lately I've really liked the GFS (American model). The GFS was pretty good at sniffing out the past event we had. While other models said several inches of snow, the GFS was only showing a brief period of snow with no accumulation. That's exactly what happened, so right now, I'm banking on the GFS giving a solid idea for the next storm.



 In the image below, I show you two different paths that this storm may take. In my honest opinion, I feel it's going to take Path #1. I could see the center of the storm sliding right over Pennsylvania; giving us a mixed bag of precipitation. For Schuylkill and surrounding counties, it really isn't a major event by any means. Areas closer to the PA/NY border may score big with this one. But for us, minimal impacts regarding snow totals. If the storm took Path #2, we would see an all snow event with nearly 10" of snow from this thing. But again, I'm leaning towards Path #1. 


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If the storm takes Path #1, it should start as some rain showers in our area Monday evening. Then the main batch of precipitation moves through after midnight. It's one of those scenario's where we go from rain to sleet to snow. Once we officially changeover to snow, we could pick up a few inches in elevations. I'm thinking 1-3" in the highest terrain of the county while the lowest terrain is in the Coating to 1" range. I would be more concerned about ICY roads/sidewalks due to a flash freeze. I could see temps going from the 40's to 20's within about 30 minutes time. If temps drop like that, it could get a little tricky out there. Snow showers would end during the morning or early afternoon hours on Tuesday. 

 As always, stay tuned as I keep you ahead of the storm!

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Evening Weather Talk: 18z NAM for Tuesday


By: Ryan Fannock

 11/09/2019 7:50PM

If you've been following along, you're aware of a storm for Tuesday. The million dollar question is whether this will be a rain or snow event. It even has the potential to be a mixed bag of everything from freezing rain, sleet, plain rain to snow. Well, I'm going to break apart one of the models that show a "colder" solution. This is the latest run of the NAM....


First, we're going to look at the start of the event in the image below. It shows some plain rain showers breaking out over the Schuylkill County area. This would be around 10:00PM Monday evening...




The next image below is around 7:00AM Tuesday morning. As you can see, there's some icy mix and snow in our area as the heaviest batch of precipitation is moving through. If you're looking for a delay or closing from school, this is PERFECT timing.



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The last image before I give snow totals is roughly around 1:00PM Tuesday. As you can see below, snow is winding down across our area. Again, this would be PERFECT timing if you're looking for that day off school. If it's still snowing in the morning around 9-10am, you'd probably get your day off. It will be interesting to see if THIS MODEL were to verify. 




The snow map below was generated by the 18z NAM. It DOES take into consideration rain, sleet and other factors that could bring down snow totals. The 3.4" in the middle of the map is for the Hazleton area. For Schuylkill County it would be a 1-3" event depending on elevation. Again, this is ONLY if the 18z NAM was completely correct. We are only examining one model here. Stay tuned for further updates.


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Fannock's Forecast - Saturday





Saturday:
Sunrise: 6:45am
Sunset: 4:52pm

11/09/2019
Average High: 56
Average Low: 32




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11/9/19
Sun.
Clouds.
High: 36

Saturday Night:

Partly cloudy.
Low: 29



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11/10/19
Mostly cloudy.
High: 48

Sunday Night:

Mostly cloudy.
A passing shower possible.
Low: 34



11/11/19
Mostly cloudy.
A few rain showers later in the day.
High: 53

Monday Night:

Rain showers move in during the evening.
Transitioning to snow showers overnight.
Flash freeze likely as temps rapidly drop.
Light snow accumulation possible by daybreak (especially in elevations)
Temps around 12am: 43
Temps around 7am: 26





11/12/19
Mostly cloudy.
A few snow showers early.
Afternoon High: 30

Tuesday Night:

Mostly clear.
Low: 14
Wind Chill: -2 to 5




11/13/19
Mostly sunny.
High: 28

Wednesday Night:

Partly cloudy.
Low: 18


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11/14/19
Sun and clouds.
High: 28

Thursday Night: 

Mostly cloudy.
Low: 23



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11/15/19
Mostly sunny.
High: 43

Friday Night:

Partly cloudy.
Low: 28


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11/16/19
Partly cloudy.
High: 42

Saturday Night:

Partly cloudy.
Low: 25



11/17/19
Sun.
Clouds.
High: 42

Sunday Night:

A snow shower.
Low: 28


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11/18/19
Mostly sunny.
High: 42

Monday Night:

Mostly clear.
Low: 32


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11/19/19
Mostly cloudy.
High: 45

Tuesday Night:

Cloudy.
Rain showers.
Low: 40


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11/20/19
Rain showers.
High: 50

Wednesday Night:

Rain showers.
Low: 36



11/21/19
Rain showers early.
High: 40

Thursday Night:

Partly cloudy.
Low: 35

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11/22/19
Partly cloudy.
High: 40

Friday Night:

Partly cloudy.
Low: 34



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11/23/19
Mostly cloudy.
High: 50

Saturday Night:

Rain showers.
Low: 39


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11/24/19
Mostly cloudy.
High: 44

Sunday Night:

Partly cloudy.
Low: 30


11/25/19
Mostly sunny.
High: 45

Monday Night:

Partly cloudy.
Low: 30



11/26/19
Partly cloudy.
High: 44

Tuesday Night:

Partly cloudy.
Low: 32



11/27/19
A few rain showers possible.
High: 46

Wednesday Night:

Partly cloudy.
Low: 33

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