Saturday, November 30, 2019

Storm Update: Part 1 on Sunday


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By: Ryan Fannock
November 30, 2019
8:00PM Update

Good evening! I've seen a lot of different forecasts, maps and remarks about this upcoming storm today. You may wonder why I waited so long to put out an update. Well, model guidance is not that good. You can literally pick a different outcome with each model. So I wanted to wait until short range models started to come into range. In this update, I'm going to show you a video with details. I'll also give text below the video for those that prefer to read. With the text, I am also putting out two maps. One map is for ICE accretion; the other is for snow totals on Sunday.

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VIDEO BELOW

5am to 9am: Isolated showers of rain, snow and sleet. The word isolated means far away from other places. Example: someone in Lebanon County "could" pick up a shower, while someone in Schuylkill County stays completely dry during those hours.


9am to 11am: Steadier precipitation starts to move into Eastern Pennsylvania from west to east. By 11am, everyone in Eastern PA should be seeing precipitation. This will range from plain rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to snow. It's all about location. In fact, you will most likely keep seeing different forms of precip throughout the day. This is called a WINTRY MIX.


11am to 5PM: Periods of wintry mix. You may see some dry slots, but overall, much of the day something will be falling from the sky.

5PM to 12AM: Scattered light wintry mix. Otherwise, much of the area will be under a LULL. A lull is when precipitation STOPS; but it's not the end of the event.

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12AM Monday and beyond: Part 2 of the storm will kick into gear. This part of the storm will be more on the snowy side. In the beginning there may be some mixing issues. But as the overnight hours wear on, snow will fall. 


Fannock's Projected
Snow Totals
Sunday ONLY
*Part 2 NOT included*
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY
OUTLINED IN BLACK


Fannock's Projected
ICE TOTALS
SUNDAY

PART 2 ARTICLE WILL BE OUT SUNDAY EVENING. I WILL HAVE SNOW TOTALS FOR PART 2 IN THAT ARTICLE. I DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST FOR MONDAY (PART 2).